Market outlook 22-09-2008

SPECIAL MENTION:

ELTY: 250-330. It may first reap from its investment in south Jakarta in the second half of 2009, which could translate into an eps of IDR24. At its current prices it is now trading at a P/E of 9 times its 2009 prospective earnings. BUY on weakness for mid term investment.

MONITORING:
KAEF: 115-160
TBLA: 400-490
UNSP: 780-930
INCO: 2,800-3,150.
BBCA: 3,000-3,300
BBRI: 5,400-5,900
INKP: 1,340-1,810
ANTM: 1,450-1,860
WIKA: 240-350

Cash in cash out….way in way out… balance yourself…

Indonesia shares are likely to trade higher, helped by gains across the global markets amid hopes that financial woes in the U.S. would finally find grounds to ease
Indonesia shares are likely to trade higher, helped by gains across the global markets amid hopes that financial woes in the U.S. would finally find grounds to ease.

In the U.S, stocks rallied Friday on U.S. government's US$700 billion rescue package which is aimed to relieve banks of toxic mortgage bonds, back-stop money-market accounts and temporarily ban short sales of financial stocks appears to have stemmed the panic on Wall Street for now. Ailing insurer American International Group jumped 43%, cutting its losses on the week to 68%. Morgan Stanley, which had declined by as much as 45% Thursday before rebounding, finished +21%; Goldman Sachs +20%. Still, market participants were divided on whether the bailout plan will mark definitive end of the bear market

Here in Indonesia, we are going to have the last six day trading sessions ahead of long holiday for Idul Fitri, which could mean that some buying would ease sometimes on Wednesday or so… The following weeks would be a justification whether our market is returning to its path to return to the home base of 2400 before ending the year in a nice twist. Series of news from interest rate policy to inflation data should color the trade, but this should not prevent inflows for 2009 investment plans and gains.

The main index could go up and down by 27 points and 78 points.

Main index: 1864-1918 s2:1813 r2: 1969

BUMI: 3,600-4,400. It’s getting more interesting to watch who is in the BUY side than understanding why it could rise. Well, as funds from the so-called Bakrie-connected institutions seemed to force themselves to jack up share prices of BUMI and “the others of Bakrie shares”; I am a bit challenged to say that gains may not be sustained

ASII: 17,200-19,600. It is still trading below its fair value of IDR26,000 based on GGM. On a p/e base, its is now trading at a p/e of 5.8 times 2009 prospective earnings, way below its Asian peers of an average of 9.7 times. BUY on weakness